USD/JPY 10 mins
The strongest NY Fed manufacturing PMI since April 2022 helped to lift USD/JPY off the floor. The pair touched as low as 139.59 today but rose around 40 pips on the PMI and has continued to track higher, rising to 140.55.
Aside from JPY, the US dollar is broadly lower with the euro, pound and antipodeans near the best levels of the day despite middling performance in equities today.
One part of the yen story that deserves some attention is the race to be the next Prime Minister. Sanae Takaichi is a leading candidate in the LDP leadership race and on the weekend she pushed back against the BOJ’s rate hike talk.
“Frankly, it was too early,” she told a news conference. “Interest rates ought to be kept low.”
A new LDP leader will be chosen on Sept 27 and will take over as Prime Minister. The BOJ is expected to hike in December but it can be swayed by political pressure.
The dollar side of the trade will swing heavily based on what the Fed does on Wednesday and what Powell signals going forward. However I think it’s increasingly clear that he wants to get closer to neutral quickly, no matter what happens on Wednesday. The groundwork for that was laid at Jackson Hole.