USD/JPY has extended to the highs of the day, up 154 pips to 142.15. It’s been a strong reversal after the pair touched a 2024 low of 139.59 yesterday.
USDJPY daily
I’m kicking myself a bit because the doji reversal yesterday was a sign of a turn and with the Fed coming up, there was some incentive to take some off the table. But that’s in the past now.
So the question is whether the market is balanced going into the Fed and I think it’s much closer, though we could see Tokyo follow on with this price action before it flattens out tomorrow.
Fed pricing is aggressive so there is some risk of disappointment, which should lead to a knee-jerk higher in the US dollar. That should be somewhat balanced by selling in equities, which should hurt USD/JPY. On net though, the pair should rally on a hawkish Fed but after the statement, eyes will quickly turn to Powell’s press conference and whether he tees up the possibility of 50 bps in November and/or a strong willingness to be proactive against the threat of rising unemployment.