The pair was one that gave us early hints about the dollar’s latest strength, alongside EUR/USD, with the break of the March and early May highs setting up the current upside push. The break above 138.00 was noteworthy and while there was a bit of a pullback on Friday last week, that has been quickly brushed aside in trading this week.
USD/JPY daily chart
It’s been a pretty straightforward ramp higher for USD/JPY as there are a multitude of reasons, including the technicals, working in its favour as of late.
For one, markets are having to reconsider a more hawkish Fed pricing as economic data remains solid in the US. Adding to that is the fact that the BOJ is still deflecting any talks of a policy pivot, and that is evident even in today’s remarks by Ueda here.
Besides that, perhaps the more important factor is that Treasury yields are also playing ball and moving higher. And that is a key factor underpinning the pair over the past two weeks:
USD/JPY vs US Treasury 10-year yields hourly chart
As you can see above, even the technicals are siding with the move higher as buyers lean on the 100-hour moving average (red line) in trading this week to maintain the upside momentum.
The 140.00 mark will be a big test though as it is an important technical and psychological level. There is likely offers lined up there but if buyers can chew through that, it could result in a quick rise towards 142.00 next for the pair.