The pair looks poised for another drop today after the selling yesterday, down 0.3% to 143.75 currently. Of note, price is starting to move towards a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 143.35 next:
USD/JPY daily chart
That puts a clearer range on price action in the bigger picture i.e. a daily ceiling at the 145.00 mark and floor at the 200-day moving average.
In the near-term, price has also fallen back below its 100-hour moving average – now seen at 144.00 – but holding above its 200-hour moving average of 142.88. That leaves a lot of room to work with as the near-term bias switches to being more neutral now. But for further downside pressure this week, do keep an eye out on the 200-day moving average highlighted above first and foremost.
All that being said, the key driver remains the bond market at the moment. So far, 10-year yields were in decline yesterday but are up 1 bps to 4.012% today. It looks like yields are held back by the 200-day moving average at 4.06% and may stay that way until we get to the US CPI data on Thursday at least.