USD/JPY daily chart
The pair hit a low of 146.53 in Asia before recovering back to around 147.00 in the handover to Europe. And as the session gets underway now, we are seeing the pair push a little lower again to 146.64 currently. As the dollar side of the equation is frozen and awaiting the US CPI data tomorrow, it’s more about the yen side of the equation at the moment.
The hawkish BOJ murmurs are still the key driving force behind the pair and that is keeping the pair underpinned. That especially as we look forward to the outcome of the spring wage negotiations later this week. Talks will be concluding on 13 March and we are likely to hear the first words on 15 March.
But in the meantime, one can expect there to be “leaks” and “reports” on the resulting wage numbers. In all likelihood, it should conform to a more hawkish nod in favour of the BOJ. As such, the only question is if the central bank is going to use that to act next week.
As for USD/JPY itself, the pair looks poised to at least run into a test of its 200-day moving average (blue line) next. The key technical level is seen at 146.19 currently. And whether or not sellers will have the appetite to chase a break below that and the 1 February low near 146.00, depends entirely on the interest ahead of the BOJ next week.
The headlines in the next few days could be a trigger for a technical push. But if sellers are to try and keep such a break lower, they will have to rely on hawkish confirmation from the BOJ on 19 March.