USDCAD fell below the 50%, but failed
The USDCAD reached a new low going back to September today, and in the process fell below the 50% midpoint of the move up from October 2021 low to the October 2022 high. That midpoint level comes in at 1.31320. The low price reached 1.31157. However, the price snapped back higher. The sellers had their shot. They messed
The subsequent move back to the upside took the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.31633. The high price reached 1.3189. That high was just short of the falling 200-hour moving average of 1.31935.
If you’ve watched my video – or read -my commentary on the USDCAD, the pair has been moving lower, with corrections that have taken the price above the 100-hour moving average (blue line and red shaded areas on the chart below) on a number of different occasions. However, momentum has stalled well ahead of the falling 200-hour moving average. The price has not traded above the 200-hour moving average since June 1.
Going forward, getting above – and staying above – the 200-hour moving average would have traders eyeing the swing era between 132.07 and 132.299. Getting above that area opens the door further for the 132.71 – 132.853 area.
USDCAD back above the 100 hour MA, but still below 200H MA
Admittedly, the 200-hour moving average is an easier hurdle as each hour passes given the downward-sloping nature of the technical level. Having said that, the buyers still need to get the price above that moving average and stay above if they are to be taken seriously. Absent that and the buyers are not winning. The sellers remain in firm control.
Conversely, if the price fails on the break of the 100-hour moving average again, buyers turn to sellers and the downside remains the favored trend.