As reciprocal tariff news loses it fear momentum —at least for now—USDCAD has broken lower. The pair has decisively moved below the 1.4260 level, which had marked the bottom of its trading range since mid-December. It has also slipped under the 38.2% retracement of the September 2024 rally at 1.42679, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
For traders eyeing further downside, staying below 1.4260–1.4268 is key. The pair has already hit a low of 1.4210, with the next major support at 1.4177, a swing high from November. A sustained break below that level would open the door to further downside, targeting the 50% retracement at 1.41057 and the 100-day moving average at 1.40846.
For now, the bearish bias remains intact as long as USDCAD holds below the 1.4260–1.4268 zone.