On the daily chart below for
USDCHF, we can see that after the big selloff since the collapse of Silicon
Valley Bank, the USD/CHF pair found a bottom at the 0.8858 level and started to
range. The moving
averages have been quite reliable in defining the trends and we have just got a
cross to the upside which may be an early signal of a change in trend.
The big divergence with the MACD might also be a sign that we
could see a bigger pullback to the upside, but to confirm that, the price
should break above the trendline first. The US Dollar has been
strong recently due to better-than-expected data that might force the Fed to
hike again in June. So, paying attention to the economic data will be crucial
going forward.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the month-long range between the 0.8858 support and the 0.9000 resistance. The moving averages have been
helpful in determining the short-term trend within the range and right now they
are pointing to the upside. We will likely see the price reaching the 0.90
handle and that’s where the market will decide what to do next. The sellers
should be leaning on that resistance for another fall towards the 0.8858
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a breakout to pile in
more aggressively and extend the rally towards the 0.9118 resistance.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the market has been respecting the upward trendline. Every time the
price fell to the trendline it bounced back strongly. This means that this
trendline is really important for the market, so a break below it would be
significant and most likely lead to a bigger selloff afterwards. Today the economic calendar is pretty empty, but the risk
events to watch next are the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell on
Friday.