The USDJPY has fallen sharply over the last few hours of trading and in the process has broken below its 100-hour moving average at 148.957, and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September 21 low at 148.734.
If you recall, that 50% retracement level was somewhat significant after the sharp fall on Tuesday’s trade last week, and the subsequent snapback rally. Admittedly, the price traded above and below the level on Thursday and Friday, but it still was a level of importance in the technical picture (see red numbered circles on the chart below).
Falling below that 50% without much problem today makes me think sellers want to take more control. It would now take a move back to the 50% retracement to hurt the bearish bias.
Having said that, there is support near 148.45 and 148.518. So far that support is trying to hold. Break below it and the door opens for a retest of the lows from last week near 148.25.