The USDJPY moved lower after the initial jobless claims moved to new 20-month highs. The data, pushed the USDJPY back below its near converged 100/200 hour moving averages at 139.70. Those moving averages are not risk-defining levels for sellers looking for more downside momentum. The price needs to stay below to keep the sellers more in control in the short term.
The problem for the pair is the price remains predominantly between support down to 138.73 and resistance up to 140.44. The price has stayed mostly in that range since May 24.
Yes, there are moves above back on May 26, 29, and 30, and moved below the lower area on June 1 and June 2. Most of the price action has been between those yellow areas near the top of the hourly chart (see chart BELOW). The market is still waiting for that next shove that moves price away.
So if the sellers are to take control, they need to get below the 138.73 – 138.89 swing area. Get below that level and traders will target the low from last week at 138.42. Below that, and the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 138.086 would be targeted.
Conversely move back above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages and all bets are off for the bears/sellers. We might then look for another run toward the 140.22 – 140.44 area.
USDJPY trades lower but still within the range