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Westpac forecasts the RBA terminal rate to 4.6% in August

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WPAC had expected a +25bp rate hike in July, which they still expect, but add in:

  • We now expect a further final increase in the cash rate of
    0.25% to 4.6% at the August Board meeting, for a peak in the
    cycle of 4.6%.

In their reasoning WPAC cite:

  • The May Labour Force Survey tips the balance on our
    August call. It showed an increase in employment of 76,000, outstripping even our top-of-the range forecast for a 40,000
    bounce
  • The stronger
    rebound means we now have average growth of 36,000 jobs
    over the two months – around the monthly pace we have seen
    over the past year, indicating no significant slowing of jobs
    growth despite the RBA’s 400 basis points of tightening over
    the same period.
  • The evidence of strong ongoing momentum in
    the labour market is sufficient to trigger the “considerable risk”
    of an August rate hike in our central forecast.

Current Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate:

Earlier:

AUD little changed.

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