The USD is higher and so is Bitcoin (up to $82500 high) as traders continue to price in the Trump presidency. The hope is lower regulation, lower corporate taxes, tariffs making US goods more competitive without spurring inflation too much are some of the themes.
The major indices moved to new highs last week and are higher in early trading today.
Oil is lower to start the day with the expectations for lower regulation and drill, drill, drill the thought process.
Gold is lower. It is losing its lustre since peaking at a new record at $2790 on October 31 (trades at $2638 currently).
The bond market is closed in observance of Veteran’s Day today. Thank you to those that fight for freedom.
EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the triple bottom from three weeks in June between 1.0665 and 1.0670. That opens the door for more downside probing the only levels left from the 2024 trading range was the low from May 1 at 1.0649. Below that, and the lows for the year come in at 1.0600 to 1.06097. The price is now about 5% since the September 25 high. Just for giggles, the 2023 low was at 1.0448. The 1.0670 level is close risk for traders in the short term. Above that, the August low at 1.06819 is a level to eye that would give the buyers some comfort. Absent that now, and the sellers are in full control.
USDJPY:The USDJPY last week moved lower and bounced off the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart(that MA comes in at 152.326 and moving higher).The move higher today has seen the price move to a swing area between 153.59 to 153.88 The 153.88 level (recall) was the a swing high going back to the end of July, and then the highs from the end of October. The high price today has reached 153.85 so far today. Move above and it opens the door toward 154.54 to 155.09.
GBPUSD:The GBPUSD is lower (higher USD) with the price stretching to 1.28755. That is just above the high of a swing area between 1.28449 up to 1.28719. The 50% of the move up from the 2024 low from back in April comes in at 1.2866. The low for the year was down at 1.22987. Looking ahead more selling would have traders looking toward the extreme low from last week at 1.2832 (it was a quick failed break) and then the 200-day MA at 1.28168 currently. The pice has not been below the 200-day MA since May 14. ON the topside, the 1.29064 level was near swing lows on Oct 23 and Oct 24. Today, there was a swing high at that level before moving lower. That wiil be a close risk level to get above IF the buyers are to feel like they are winning. Absent that, and the buyers are still losing. Getting above that level is the minimum. There is still wordk to do with a cluster of MAs started near 1.2935 up to 1.2963 lining up as upside targets.
USDCHF:The USDCHF is continuing the stretch to the upside today and is testing the 50% target at 0.87986 level (move down from the May 1 high). Get above that level would have traders looking toward the key 200 day MA at 0.8817. That is near a swing area between 0.88187 and 0.8835. Get above that area, opens the door for more upside momentum. On the downs, the highs from last week came between 0.8772 to 0.87763. It would take a move below that area to give the sellers a victory in the short term. Absent that and give the break to new highs since July 31, keeps the buyers in control.
USDCAD: THe USDCAD is moving higher with the pair moving to a swing area between 1.3945 up to 1.239581. Swing highs from October 31, November 1, November 6 and November 7 are being tested in the early NA trading. Move above and the high from 2022 at 1.3977 will be targeted. Move above that level and the pair is trading at the highest level since 2020. The low today was near the 200 hour MA currently at 1.3905 (at the start of the Asian session). It would take a move below that level and the rising 100 hour MA to tilt the bias back to the downside. Absent that, and the buyers are winning. The sellers are losing.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is modestly lower to start the trading day. It is dipping below the 61.8% of the move up from August at 0.6575. There are a lot of choppy lows over the last few weeks. The 0.6564, 0.65357 and 0.65113 to 0.6500 are the next targets on the downside. A risk on bounce or China stimulus would have 0.6617 to 0.66293 as topside tarrgets that would indicate more upside momentum.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin took off (with rocket boosters) over the weekend, moving to a new all-time high at $82,500 as the Trump victory paves the way for less regulation. The move took the price further from the old highs near $73680 which were broken last week. The current price is at $81740.
To the moon for the HODL traders. Is the moon 100K? The 100-hour MA is down at $77677 and moving higher (not shown). It would take a move below it (and staying below) to increase the bearish bias.