Below is a quick snapshot of what is priced for major central banks after yesterday’s US CPI.
A few notable changes:
BoC: after yesterday’s policy decision, markets now see about a 50/50 chance between a cut and hold for June.
BoE: Markets have pushed back their expectations a bit with the first cut now fully priced in by September, and just 48 basis points of cutting priced for the year.
Fed: First cut for the Fed fully priced in by November, with a 88% chance of a cut in September.
Central_Bank_Detailed_Table_2024_04_11 (08_19)
Below is a quick comparison for the total amount of cutting implied by year end.
Apart from the BoJ where hikes are still expected, the biggest two outliers is the RBA at -18 basis points worth of cuts implied, and then ECB at -73 basis points of cuts implied by year end.
Year end rate changes expected