Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada interest rate probabilities could make a big move in the day ahead as tariffs are either imposed, delayed or called off.
At the moment, the market is feeling more optimistic but that could change quickly.
The next BOC meeting is on March 12 and the market is pricing in an 83% chance of a cut. Through year end, the market is pricing in 62.8 bps of easing, or 2.5 rate cuts.
To get a sense of what’s at stake, BMO today forecast six further rate cuts this year if tariffs are in place, bringing rates from 3.00% to 1.50%.