Yesterday, influential Senator Lindsey Graham said that the ‘reality’ is that the US needs border, immigration and military funding now because “the money is drying up”. That led to him to call for an immediate bill on that and a later one on tax reform.
In the House, Speaker Johnson yesterday indicated in a private meeting of the Elected Leadership Committee that he would not bring up Graham’s budget resolution if it passed the Senate as he prefers one bill.
The thinking is that one bill makes it more likely that a large tax cut is passed as the immigration/border/military spending can be used to leverage votes from deficit hawks. The two-bill approach would delay the tax bill and that could lead to a hardening of positions along with a tougher fight for tax cuts.
The House majority is just 2 votes at the moment and the Senate majority is just 3 so it’s tough to handicap how likely a tax cut really is given the huge US deficit. A Politco report on Sunday also indicated that “many” in Congress don’t want to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts.