In the final few minutes of the press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde offered a hint that they’re done hiking but it came after repeated assertions that they were data dependent.
It was a strange exchange because it wasn’t a slip, she seemed to go out of her way to say it.
The moderator was going to the next question and then Lagarde interrupts:
“Oh no, I wanted to add for Tom: You asked, do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time, I wouldn’t say so, because as I said, the data that we just discussed and the assessment of data will actually tell us whether and how much ground we have to cover, in September and at subsequent meetings. And as I said in the early part of this press conference, it may vary from one month to the other”
This is likely a mistaken turn of phrase. When she says “I wouldn’t say so” I think what she means is “I wouldn’t indicate”. The english idiom “I wouldn’t say so” means no but I’m fairly sure that she’s trying to say “I couldn’t say” or simply “I wouldn’t say”.
That fits in much better with her earlier messaging and so it’s not as bearish for the euro. The market is currently pricing in a 36% chance of an ECB hike in Sept.