Crude Oil has been ranging
between the $83 support and the broken trendline as the situation in the Middle
East remains a big risk for the market. Good news were followed by falling oil
prices while bad news triggered rallies. Yesterday, we got an unfortunate news
of a hospital getting bombed and causing hundreds of casualties.
As Bloomberg reported, Oil prices climbed as Middle East
leaders cancelled a summit between US, Jordan, Palestine and Egypt in Amman.
It’s not yet clear who’s responsible for the bombing as Israel blames a failed
rocket launch by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group and Hamas blames the
Israeli airstrikes. Once we get more accurate information, we will likely see
Oil prices climbing if Israel is found out responsible. On the other hand, if
the Islamic Jihad group is found out responsible, Crude Oil could fall.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
WTI Crude Oil Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil
printed a double bottom on the
$83 support as
tensions in the Middle East remain high. The price is now at a key resistance
where we have the confluence of the
50% Fibonacci retracement level,
the red 21 moving average and the
broken trendline. This is
where the sellers continue to pile in to position for a drop back into the
support and ultimately eyeing a break lower.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
WTI Crude Oil 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
now trading withing a rising channel which could end up being a bear flag pattern
if the price was to break to the downside. The buyers will need the price to
break above the resistance around the $88 level to invalidate the bearish setup
and start targeting the highs.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
WTI Crude Oil 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the near term price action and the key resistance around the $88 level.
If we start to see the price falling from these levels and break through the
last swing low at $85.60, we can expect the selling momentum to increase and
likely lead to a selloff into the $83 support. That’s where the buyers will
have another good opportunity to position for a rally with a better risk to
reward setup.
Upcoming Events
Tomorrow we will get the latest US Jobless Claims
report and the market will want to see if the miss in Continuing Claims last
week was just a blip or the start of a trend. Later in the day we will also
hear from Fed Chair Powell where the market will be focused on any hint about
the near-term policy outlook. Crude Oil is likely to get under pressure if the
Jobless Claims data misses expectations by a big margin or Fed Chair Powell
sounds very hawkish. Other risks include the situation in the Middle East where
bad news around an expansion of the conflict could lead to a spike in Crude Oil
prices.