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4.9% GDP growth today is certainly going to be a high-water mark for the next couple years but whether it’s a soft landing or not will depend on how hard high rates bite next year.
- Investments in green energy and chips will create jobs
- We see good strong consumer spending, the economy is doing well
- Surge in bond yields is happening in most advanced countries, it’s not an indicator of recession
- Part of increase in yields is a reflection of expectations that interest rates will be higher for longer
I’d dispute that last point as the Fed funds curve hasn’t shifted much.